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2023
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Page 1
Minting Money with MENTHA OIL (MENTHOL)
* All Price in INR & quantity in MT
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2023
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Page 2
Mentha Oil- In our previous reports generated in 2021-2022 we had summarized
the scenario of Mint industry during that time. This year, Synthetic menthol has captured 50% of the
natural market. Some old things come back as new even after many years. For example, the calendar
of 2023 is exactly similar 2023. Just as when we are writing this Mint-Report, it appears to be a
repetition of the report we wrote in 2017, which you can see on my website Link
https://www.prkcom/2017.php.
To-day now in the Era of “AI https://chat.openai.com/ ” we ask question : which
is best natural menthol or synthetic menthol Replay Both natural and synthetic menthol are
safe and effective for most people. However, there is some evidence that natural menthol may be more
effective at relieving coughs and sore throats than synthetic menthol. Natural menthol is also less
likely to cause allergic reactions. A 2013 study published in the journal
"Phototherapy Research" found that natural menthol was more effective at
relieving coughs than synthetic menthol. The study found that natural menthol
also had a longer lasting effect than synthetic menthol. Another study,
published in the journal "Allergy" in 2015, found that natural menthol was
less likely to cause allergic reactions than synthetic menthol. The study found
that natural menthol was also less likely to irritate the skin. However, it is important to note that these
studies were small and more research is needed to confirm these findings. Ultimately, the best type of
menthol for you may depend on your individual needs and preferences. If you are concerned about the
safety of synthetic menthol, you may want to choose natural menthol. However, if you are looking for
a more affordable option, synthetic menthol may be a better choice. If you are still unsure about which
type of menthol to choose, you may want to talk to your doctor or pharmacist. They can help you
determine which type of menthol is right for you.
Since, Mint industry has been a major contributor to the local economy of the state of Uttar
Pradesh and has helped in improving the social and economic condition of farmers in each region.
However, due to the increasing use of synthetic menthol, the mint industry is fighting for its survival
due to the government's neglect
Synthetic menthol is cheaper than natural menthol and also imported by Indian consumer
companies. This has led to a decline in demand for natural menthol, making it difficult for farmers,
Indian Mint
2023
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industry to sustain their livelihoods. If the trend of using synthetic menthol continues, the mint
industry in western Uttar Pradesh may be in crisis. Appropriate steps need to be taken by the
government, consumers and industry stakeholders to protect and promote the cultivation of natural
mint crops. This may include implementing policies to support the mint industry, creating awareness
about the benefits of natural menthol, and exploring sustainable strategies for
the long-term viability of the industry. Now a new condition is generated that the
natural mint industry is
The natural menthol industry is scared that if synthetic continues to be offered at this price,
we cannot survive and the synthetic menthol industry is also afraid that if the price of Indian mint
remains the same then it will end. Some of the challenges faced by mint industry are as follows:
• Competition from synthetic menthol:Synthetic menthol is cheaper than natural menthol and is
also imported by Indian companies. This has led to a decline in demand for natural menthol, making
it difficult for mint farmers to sustain their livelihoods.
• Low price:Mint prices are often coming down, making it difficult for farmers to make survive for
mint cultivation. It has been observed that other crops produced at the same time are getting good
revenue.
• Lack of awareness: Many consumers are not aware of the benefits of natural menthol (mint
product). This may lead to a decline in the demand for natural menthol, which can have a negative
impact on the industry.Some ways to address the challenges faced by the (Mint) Mint industry:
• Government Assistance:The Government can support the (Mint)
Mint industry by implementing policies to protect and promote
cultivation of natural mint (menthol) crops. The government should
impose anti-dumping duty on import material to promote its
cultivation and support farmers by providing subsidy on farming, which may include providing
subsidies to farmers, investing in research and development, and creating awareness about the
benefits of natural menthol.
Indian Mint
2023
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• Consumer Awareness: Consumers can be made aware of the benefits of natural menthol
through education and marketing campaigns. This can help increase the demand for natural menthol,
which will benefit the industry. Mint is an important part of the economy in Uttar Pradesh. It is
important to take steps to address the challenges faced by the industry so that it continues to flourish
and provide economic opportunities for farmers in the region.
The battle of natural vs synthetic menthol has now started, now to study it
comprehensively, we now consider its statistics. Some golden moments in time history
to achieve the this journey
Year
Important Moment in Mentha Arvensis Oil Crop
1964-1965
Introduction of Mint by DR. Bali Ram Taygi's
1973-1974
World Shortage of Menthol
1981-1982
Introduction of MAS-1
1990-1991
Introduction of Shivalik
1994-1995
Introduction of Gomti
1995-1996
World Shortage of Menthol
1996-1997
Introduction of Himalaya
1997-1998
Introduction of Koshi
2004-2005
Introduction of Transplantation
2005-2006
Introducing MCX
2011-2012
World Shortage of Menthol
2013-2014
BASF Enters Synthetic Menthol
2014-2015
High productionArea 48000MT
2015-2016
Introducing Sim Kranti
2017-2018
BASF Force mager diclierd
2020-2021
Golden variety
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2023
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Price Rise
19-20
Increased
Planting
20-21
Over Supply
21-22
Price Fall
22-23
Lower Planting
23-24
Under Supply
2021-2022
Cim Unnnati variety
2022-2023
Low Production Year
Cycle of price fluctuation-
This is how this fluctuation chart of any agri-commodity moves in this way; we
just have to understand where we stand now this year
Mentha oil Production-
The trend shown by the farmers towards this crop from 2017-18 continued till 2020-21, then
gradually it started coming down. Today we reach the same position from where its production
started jumping. On the one hand, we are moving towards iron organic cultivation, on the other
hand, India is a major exporter of menthol, but demand from other countries has been
weak due to the global economic slowdown. This has led to Indian companies having
Current Stage in
Mentha cycle
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2023
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to stockpile menthol, which has increased carry over stock. synthetic menthol, which is
a cheaper alternative to natural menthol. The import of synthetic menthol has also
increased, which has further contributed to the increase in carry over stock. Indian
consumer companies have been using low-price menthol in their products in order to compete with
the cheaper synthetic menthol. This has led to a slowdown in demand for menthol, as consumers are
not willing to pay a premium for natural menthol. we are taking synthetic hands despite knowing it,
which will spoil our health somewhere, that too for just $ 2. You must ask yourself this question.
Year
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24*
Carry Over Stock
6861
1663
1072
2633
6464
3462
8306
Production [MT]
31000
38750
48438
53766
48389
41937
32259
2021-22 is most important year demand
2020-21 life time high production year
2019-2022 very good demand in export
Many in the industry were worried a couple of years about the possible supply of
synthetic menthol and its impact on the domestic scenario for Mentha oil.
38750
48438
53766
48389
41937
32259
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
MENTHA OIL PRODACTION [MT]
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2023
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Menthol Exports from India-
Department of Commerce Export Import Data Bank-
Menthol Crystal HS Code 29061100; Menthol Crystal HS Code 30039021;
Peppermint oil HS Code 33012400
Year
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-
24*(E)
Total
Menthol
17311
17310
21319
23026
24333
16547
16547
China
9143
9119
12278
15256
15280
8872
8872
Rest
Word
8,168
8,191
9,041
7,770
9,053
7,675
7675
The essence of synthetic menthol lies in fixed production capacity with most
detrimental price.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
Menthol Export
Indian Mint
2023
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While synthetic menthol has succeeded in containing the price violating of
Mentha oil in domestic markets; there has been no impact of this surplus supply
of menthol for Indian exports.
This indicates a stronger global market for menthol.
In the years 20-21 and 21-22, Indian menthol exports experienced significant growth.
This was primarily driven by China's substantial purchase of Indian menthol at a very
low price. The competitive pricing of Indian menthol made it an attractive option for
China, leading them to build up their inventory. Meanwhile, synthetic menthol had
already made its entry into the international market since 2017, gaining popularity in
the consumer market. This gradual shift towards synthetic menthol started impacting
China's crystal market, as the demand for natural menthol decreased.
Synthetic menthol- a reality:-
Year
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
QT MT
1511
1372
1334
3057
4676
4193
3355
3355
1511
1372
1334
3057
4676
4193
3355
3355
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
Indian Mint
2023
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Page 9
Menthol Capacity-2023 Natural and Synthetic
Menthol
Instailed
Menthol
Operational
%
Share
India
Natural (Arvensis) Multiple
85000
23500
49
China
Natural (Arvensis) Multiple
10000
2000
4
Singapore
Natural (Arvensis) TYC
3000
900
2
Synthetic Source
Holzminden,
Germany
Synthetic (m-Cresole & Citral)-Symrise
3000
2400
5
Ludwigshafen,,
Germany
Synthetic Citral)-BASF
5000
3800
8
Kuantan,Malaysia
Synthetic Citral-BASF
10000
4000
8
South Carolina USA
Synthetic Symrise
3000
2400
5
Twata Japan
Synthetic(NI) (Delta 3 Carene ex Cedar)
Takasago
2500
2400
5
Anhui,China
Synthetic (m-Cresole) Highhua(shengyuan)
3000
2400
5
Shandong,Chian
Synthetic (m-Cresole)-WanHua Chemi
5000
1000
2
Zhejiang,China
Synthetic (m-Cresole) NHU
3600
3000
6
India
Synthetic (m-Cresole)
1300
0
0
India
Synthetic (m-Cresole)
3600
600
1
India
Synthetic Agson Global
1200
0
0
Total
Natural+Synthetic
134200
48400
100
While most synthetic menthol producing companies used to consume the
produce for their self-consumption, the surplus production has been coming
in the markets since rise in production capacity in last couple of years.
Synthetic Mentha is now playing a major role in decreasing the price volatility
as production of synthetic menthol is assured leaving behind the factors of
Mentha oil such as crop area, weather and remuneration vis-à-vis other
crops.
Global majors such as BASF, Symrise and Takasago had entered the
production of synthetic menthol and have been increasing the production
since 2012.
Considering the size and business volumes of these majors there could be
substantial rise in production of synthetic menthol from international players
going ahead.
Indian Mint
2023
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Production of Mentha oil in India [MT] App.
Year
Carry
Over
Stock
Product
ion [MT]
Total
availabil
ity (OP+
PRO)
Mentha
oil
Total
menthol
Export
Chapter
29+33
Domesti
c
consum
ption
Menthol
Total
supply
(Mentho
l)
Convers
ation In
Mentha
oil
surpl
us
Stock
Stoc
k to
Use
Rati
o
Producti
on %
17-
18
6861
31000
37861
17310
9839
27149
36198
1663
10%
3
18-
19
1663
38750
40413
17167
12339
29506
39341
1072
7%
25
19-
20
1072
48438
49509
21319
13839
35157
46877
2633
14%
25
20-
21
2633
53766
56398
23612
13839
37451
49935
6464
25%
11
21-
22
6464
48389
54853
24333
14210
38543
51391
3462
18%
-10
22-
23
3462
40324
43786
16320
11500
27820
37093
6693
38%
-22
23-
24
6693
30646
37339
16320
11500
27820
37093
246
13%
-20
*Recovery ratio of Menthol at 75% from Mentha Oil
The production is lesser then last year production
Stock in ration below 15% after 19-20 .it’s very alarming year
When stock in ration when below 15% possible to price high
Spot Price
IN MCX
Year
low
high
Low
High
17-18
875
1992
945
2140
18-19
1150
2000
1106
1846
19-20
1235
1320
1176
1335
20-21
905
1050
945
1018
21-22
960
1135
899
1099
22-23
980
1185
980
1051
23-24
910
952
Indian Mint
2023
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Page 11
Global Mentha oil/ Menthol scenario:-
Estimated availability 23-24*
Mentha oil
Menthol
Opening Stocks
6693
5020
Production (F) 23-24
30646
22985
Synthetic L menthol Import 22-23 India
3355
Total Supply
37339
31359
Exports 23-24
21760
16320
Domestic Consumption India
15333
11500
Total Disappearance
37093
27820
Total Excise
246
3539
.
Demand & Supply Analysis for Menthol world
Year 2023
(Estimate)
World Demand for Menthol (N+S)
50,000
Menthol Supply from Synthetic Source
22,000
Menthol Supply from Natural Source
28,005
Mentha Arvensis expected to produce Natural Menthol
37,339
Mentha Arvensis Oil Supply from respective Season
30,646
Carry-Forward Arvensis Oil from previous season
6,693
Total Oil Pool Available from respective Season
37,339
Arvensis Oil Expected to get carried forward in season
6,693
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2023
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Page 12
Technical outlook-
Strategy for the entire year: Downside Levels
Phase 1 - Market is getting ready to break the support of ₹880 level
Phase 2 - The first breakdown would be observed below 880 levels that can extend the
fall for sell up to 840.
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2023
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Phase 3 – the market is expected to find strong buying support at 840 which can rally
up to 920 levels and beyond post September 2023 with very strong support at the
psychological level of 800.
Phase 4 – Strong Bullish wave will only take place once 920 levels is broken
convincingly.
Phase 5 – the Break of 920 levels can see a strong rally till 1060 and 1140 (Expected
time for this rally 22 weeks)
WEEKLY CHART LEVELS (Current Trend Weak)
Current Market Support Levels – 880-85
Next Support – 840-850
Current Resistance – 920
Indian Piperita oil-
Last year, there was a good production of India Piperita oil in Punjab, with farmers receiving
favorable prices. However, this year's production declined due to a shortage of root material and a
decrease in farmers' interest in mint cultivation. Notably, Etah experienced low production
specifically due to the scarcity of root material.
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2023
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The rise of corn cultivation has diverted farmers' attention from India Piperita oil, leaving only those
with prior experience engaged in its cultivation. Fortunately, this year's favorable climatic conditions
resulted in a good recovery of India Piperita oil during distillation.
To encourage India Piperita oil cultivation, we should focus on distributing roots to farmers,
introducing robust varieties, providing minimum support prices, and developing suitable areas for
cultivation. Additionally, addressing the declining trend requires research and development, farmer
training, collaborations, market diversification, government support, and community initiatives.
Implementing these strategies can help reverse the declining trend and ensure the long-term growth
of the India Piperita oil industry.
Indian Piperita oil Production MT and Price Comparison Chart
Production Metric Ton MT ; Price in INR 2450 to 2650 ;HS Code of the Commodity :-33012402;
33012400
On analysing the Chart as above, lets discuss the following:
Last year, farmers received a good price for their produce, but unfortunately, this did not translate
into increased production. This year, there has been a decline in production, and farmers are facing
challenges with low demand. Additionally, traders are also experiencing difficulties on their side.
The discrepancy between the favorable prices and the lack of production suggests that there may be
underlying issues preventing farmers from capitalizing on the market conditions. It is crucial to
identify and address these obstacles to foster increased production and bridge the gap between
demand and supply.
Collaborative efforts among farmers, traders, and other stakeholders
can help analyze the factors contributing to the low production and
demand. This could involve assessing the availability of resources such
as root material, evaluating cultivation practices, and understanding
market dynamics.
Finding solutions to these challenges may require targeted interventions, including providing farmers
with necessary resources and training, incentivizing production through support prices, and exploring
ways to stimulate demand through marketing initiatives.
By addressing the issues faced by farmers and traders alike, it is possible to create a more conducive
environment for increased production and improved market conditions.
Indian Mint
2023
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Page 15
Indian Piperita oil Production MT and Price Comparison Chart
Financial Year
MT
Its cutting
IInd cutting
Low
High
Low
High
17-18
350
2200
3350
2800
5400
18-19
750
2000
2650
3000
3500
19-20
625
2150
2650
3080
3400
20-21
700
2300
2750
2800
3550
21-22
750
2150
2880
2950
3550
22-23
650
2150
2880
2950
3550
23-24
550
2350
3250
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
350
750
625
700
750
650
550
Indian Piperita oil Production MT.
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2023
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Page 16
INDIA PRODUCTION IN 2023
550
CARRY-OVER FROM 2022
50
TOTAL AVAILABLE IN 2023
600
GENUINE DEMAND IN 2023
600
SURPLUS AVAILABLE IN 2023
NIL
Price move 2350 to 2700 this year
Spearmint oil-
In recent years, there has been a consolidation in the production of Spearmint
oil (referred to as "SP" here). The popularity of synthetic carbon in the global market has led to an
increased preference for synthetic flavors over natural mint flavors. Despite this trend, it is important
to note that people are still using mint flavors, albeit in higher quantities of synthetic carbon.
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2023
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Page 17
As a consequence, the cultivation of Spearmint oil in India has stagnated, with no significant
improvements. The lack of attention, along with the absence of new developments and alternative
routes, has hindered the growth of this industry. Consequently, the demand for Spearmint oil may
gradually decline over time.
Looking ahead, the next year presents a potential threat to the Spearmint oil industry unless
measures are taken to address the existing challenges and explore new opportunities.
FY
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24*
MT
195
195
215
250
105
145
150
Price
Low
2850
2100
2000
2235
2800
2750
2800
Price
High
1600
1650
1400
1900
2000
2250
2150
INDIA PRODUCTION IN 2023
150
CARRY-OVER FROM 2022
10
TOTAL AVAILABLE IN 2023
160
GENUINE DEMAND IN 2023
180
Short AVAILABLE IN 2023
20
Price move 2150 to 2700 this year
0
50
100
150
200
250
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24*
Indian Mint
2023
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Page 18
Prateesh Kumar Gupta
CEO-Mint & Herbals
Mobile/Hand Phone:+91-9412295642
PRAKASH CHEMICALS
Anaj Mandi ,Budaun -243601(UP) India
Tel:+ 91-5832-224642,+91-9368595642,Fax:+91-5832-225243
Email: prkchem@prkchemicals.com , prkchem@yahoo.com
Web: www.prkchemicals.com
DISCLAIMER: This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell Commodities. The
information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability)
is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions
in the Commodities mentioned in their articles. None of the contributors accepts any liability arising
out of the above information/articles. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is
prohibited. Data provided by Shri Prateesh Gupta, CEO-Prakash Chemicals.
This report is for private circulation